A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
