Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
